The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

This is a theory born in the first years of the 20th century that tries to describe the relationship between population's growth and economic increase, and the assessment that every country is in one of the different stages that we can study.

It states that in world's population history we can distinguish 5 stages:

Stage 1. High stationary: both birth rate and death rate high. Population increase is slow and fluctuates. There is no country at this stage, but some indigenous tribes.
Stage 2. Early expanding: birth rate stays high, but death rate falls rapidly. Population grows quickly. Life expectancy increases. Countries like Afghanistan, Sudan, and Lybia are in this stage.
Stage 3. Late expanding: birht rate falls and death rate stays at low level. Population growth rate rapid at first, then slows. Countries like Brazil and Argentina are in this stage.
Stage 4. Low stationary: birth and death rates are low. Population is stable or grows very slowly. Developed countries are in this stage.
Stage 5. Low declining: low birth rate with elderly population go to a declining population. Japan and Sweden are in this stage.